Commodities Tracker – November Edition

This commentary covers the key takeaways for the listed commodities. Click the (x) next to the sectors to see the respective monthly charts pack.

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Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

The U.S. Government announced an $80 billion partnership with Cameco and Brookfield to deploy Westinghouse’s reactors across the U.S.¹ The deal grants Washington equity and profit-sharing rights, aligning public and private capital in an expedited national nuclear build-out.² The partnership ties nuclear directly to energy security and AI/data-centre power demand, signalling a potential structural policy pivot to treat nuclear as grid-critical infrastructure.³
Japan’s regulator approved Tomari-3 for restart, while South Korea and France both reaffirmed commitments to long-duration nuclear life extensions.⁴
Uranium long-term prices rose to $83/lb, with spot rising 10% month-on month to 82.63; utilities (end-users of uranium) continue to prioritise tenor and security of supply over near-term price arbitrage.⁵

Production setbacks in Indonesia, Chile, and the DRC led the ICSG to cut 2025 mine-growth to ~1.4% (from ~2.3%) and project a refined copper deficit of ~150 kt in 2026.⁶
Copper prices touched fresh highs near $11,100/t on the LME late October, driven by near-term supply risks and improving trade sentiment from the US-China negotiations.⁷
Governments stepped in to preserve processing capacity: Australia committed A$600 m (US$395 m) to keep Glencore’s Mount Isa smelter operating through 2028.⁸
Anglo American reaffirmed 2025 output guidance (690–750 kt) but warned 2026 Chile volumes could stay flat due to lower ore grades and recoveries, pointing to limited new supply growth.⁹
On demand, Wood Mackenzie estimates global electrification programs could require an extra 2 Mtpa of copper supply this decade.¹⁰

Gold surged to record levels in mid-October before easing as real yields rose and geopolitical tensions eased, causing some de-grossing and subsequent retracement in price.¹¹
China removed their VAT offset for physical gold in the retail market, ending the incentive and raising costs for consumers in China’s bullion market.¹²
Silver rallied, driven by physical shortages (causing an LME-arbitrage), high lease rates, and strong industrial demand from solar and EV sectors, before sharply falling as investors de-grossed and the physical shortages eased.¹³
Over 300t of silver were shipped from the U.S. and China to London vaults in mid-October to close the arbitrage opportunity, easing the short squeeze in spot markets and stabilising lease rates and prices.¹⁴
Metals Focus raised its 2026 price forecasts for both gold and silver, citing resilient investment flows and industrial demand.¹⁵

In late October, the U.S. and China agreed to pause new tariffs and suspend China’s planned export curbs on rare earths for roughly one year, reducing near-term supply risk and prompting a sharp correction in rare-earth miner equities.¹⁶ The truce deflates the geopolitical risk premium but is viewed as temporary, with both sides signalling that rare-earth policy will remain a strategic lever in broader trade negotiations.¹⁷
The U.S. and Australia signed a new critical minerals cooperation agreement, expanding joint funding for rare-earths processing and separation capacity in both countries.¹⁸ The deal follows heightened U.S.–China tensions, including reports that China may tighten export licensing for heavy rare earths (Dy, Tb) used in EV motors and defence systems.¹⁹
The U.S. Department of Defense advanced long-term offtake and price-floor mechanisms for MP Materials’ NdPr output (~$110/kg floor), locking in domestic supply security.²⁰
Meanwhile, Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths announced fresh investment to expand cracking and leaching at Kalgoorlie, aligning with Canberra’s goal to boost midstream independence.²¹
Lithium markets were relatively quiet: spot prices stayed weak amid oversupply, though analysts flagged that lower-cost Chinese converters continue gaining market share.²²

OPEC+ continued unwinding output cuts in October, while the IEA projects a 3–4 mb/d global surplus through mid-2026 amid slower demand growth.²³
Global supply averaged ~108 mb/d, with visible inventory builds and tanker volumes at multi-year highs.²⁴
Henry Hub gas stayed subdued (~US$3–4/MMBtu) on mild weather and strong supply; U.S. storage remains well above its 5-year average.²⁵
Europe extended its gas-storage directive to 2027, improving seasonal flexibility and further cushioning winter price risks.²⁶

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