This commentary covers the key takeaways for the listed commodities. Click the (x) next to the sectors to see the respective monthly charts pack.

Marketing Communication. Capital at Risk. For Professional Investors Only.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Nuclear Energy & Uranium (x)
U.S. Enrichment Push; Uranium ETF Liquidity Grows; Niger Stockpile Frozen

• The US DOE is set to allocate 900m to expand U.S. enrichment capacity (including HALEU, the fuel for SMRs) ahead of the 2028 cutoff of Russian imports — another step toward a domestic, SMR-ready fuel chain.¹
• Liquidity around physical uranium ticked up: the Montréal Exchange listed options on the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT), and SPUT stepped up purchases in September (largest weekly intake since early-2023).^2,3
• Legal risk in West Africa intensified: an international tribunal ordered Niger to halt any sale/transfer of ~1,500 t of uranium seized from Orano’s SOMAIR, freezing material that might otherwise have hit spot.⁴

Base Metals and Copper (x)
Grasbery Supply Shock; Low Copper Refining Charges Signal Tight Supply; Tariff Whiplash Fades

• A mud-rush at Grasberg (Freeport McMoran) triggered force majeure and output downgrades into 2026–27 — a fresh supply shock to an already tight mine pipeline.⁵
• Copper treatment & refining charges (TC/RCs) — the fees smelters charge to process concentrate — stayed depressed, indicating tight concentrate supply.⁶ China’s industry group is studying controls on new smelting capacity to curb price wars, while Japan’s JX Advanced Metals flagged output cuts and capacity rationalisation as low fees erode margins.⁷
• After July’s tariff shock, the U.S. confirmed the 50% China tariff excludes refined copper and ore, defusing the physical-arb distortion that spiked in August.⁸
• Anglo American and Teck agreed a US$53 billion merger, creating one of the world’s largest copper producers — a signal of accelerating consolidation as miners seek scale, cost synergies, and secure copper assets to meet long-term demand.⁹

Gold (x) & Silver (x)
Record Highs Meet a US Data Blackout Risk; PBoC Buys Again; India Font-Loads Imports

• Gold ETFs posted net inflows in August (led by North America/Europe), keeping investment demand supportive into late-September’s macro cycle.¹⁰
• PBoC bought gold again in August (10th straight month), reinforcing the structural demand even as China’s private-sector demand softened.¹¹
• The U.S. government shutdown began Oct 1, delaying key data (e.g., jobs/CPI) that guide the Fed; the blackout complicates and could defer the timing of rate cuts in coming weeks.¹²
• Silver ETF demand rose throughout September, aided by gold’s run at record highs and a dip in US real rates; global silver ETP holdings remain below the pandemic-era peak (2020–21) despite strong 2025 inflows.¹³

Oil (x) and Gas (x)
OPEC+ Signals Another November Hike; IEA Sees Bigger Surpluses; Gas Storage Cushions Prices

• Ahead of the Oct 5 meeting, OPEC+ signalled another quota increase for November.¹⁴
• The IEA’s September Oil Market Report again highlighted implied surpluses into 2026 as supply outpaces demand growth.¹⁵
• U.S. natural-gas storage sits ~6% above the five-year average, keeping Henry Hub rallies in check despite power burn/LNG pull; EU storage rules are extended to 2027, maintaining seasonal risk-management flexibility.¹⁶

Critical Minerals, Battery Tech & Lithium (x)
Lithium Supply Gets a Shock, while US Makes Moves in Domestic Rare-Earths Supply Chain

• The DOE will take a 5% stake in Lithium Americas and a separate 5% stake in the Thacker Pass JV with GM via no-cost warrants as part of a reworked federal loan — lowering financing risk and tightening OEM-to-mine integration for U.S. battery supply chains.¹⁷
• In rare earths, the Pentagon’s 10-year NdPr price floor at $110/kg and decade-long magnet offtake with MP Materials remain the key Western backstops for processing/magnets.¹⁸